Only Ten States Matter 20150305

The presidential election roughly comes down to ten swing states, six key, and four likely to go Democratic based on voting trends.  Key (Electoral College votes): Colorado 9, Florida 29, Nevada 6, North Carolina 15, Ohio 18, and Virginia 13.  Likely Democratic with Iowa being most likely to go Republican: Iowa 6, New Hampshire 4, Pennsylvania 20, and Wisconsin 10.  Of these states only Iowa in 2004, and New Hampshire in 2000 have gone Republican since 1992.  In every other election they went Democrat. 

The rest of America is functionally a given and irrelevant.  Why?  Since Clinton in 1992 of the states denoted as Democrat only New Mexico in 2004 went Republican.  The states of California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and the District of Columbia have all gone Democrat in every other presidential election. 

Since 1992, of the states denoted as Republican only Indiana in 2008, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, West Virginia in 1992, 1996, and Montana in 1992 went Democrat.  The states of Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming have all gone Republican in every other presidential election.

What does this mean?  If the likely Democratic states all go Democrat, a Democrat can win any combination of Nevada and Colorado or any one of Florida, Virginia, North Carolina or Ohio and lose the rest of the ten swing states and get the 270 electoral college votes to win.  For Republicans to win if the likely four go Democratic, Republicans would have to win Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, plus either Colorado or Nevada.

If Republicans win Iowa, any combination of Nevada or Colorado and any one of North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia would equal a win or just win Florida.  Democrats could lose the rest.  If Republicans win Iowa they would still have to win Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, but could lose Colorado and Nevada. 

If you look at swing state primaries Sanders won Colorado and New Hampshire big, lost Nevada and Iowa very close (less than 600 people) and Clinton won Virginia going away.  On the Republican side due to the high number of candidates turn out has been higher than usual, especially in Virginia, Nevada, and New Hampshire.  Trump won all of those states, but received less total votes than the Democratic winner in both Virginia and New Hampshire.  

For popular vote the Republican winners since 1980 Reagan, 1984 Reagan, 1988 Bush won by 8.4, 16.8, and 7 million votes.  Starting in 1992 Bush Jr. won by half a million and then by 3 million, basically the 2000 election was decided by 537 votes in Florida.  On the other hand Clinton won by 5.8 million and 8.2 million although Ross Perot skewed 1.9 million and 800,000 votes in those elections.  Obama won by 9.5 and 4.9 million. 

The other lesson is turnout.  In 1980 to 1988 total turnout averaged 89 million.  From 1992 to 2012 total turnout averaged 112.8 million, with 129 and 126 million in the last two elections.  The part of the population of America that is growing is more Democrat than Republican.